The Effectiveness of Structural Monetary Policy and Macro-Prudential Policies — Based on the DSGE Model That Includes Bank Heterogeneous Credit

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity - Structural monetary policy and macro-prudential policies are important parts of the policy system of the People’s Bank of China. By constructing a...     

Impact of the RMB Joining in the SDR Basket on Its Internationalization from the Perspective of Risk Spillover

For evaluating the influence of the Chinese renminbi(RMB) joining in the special drawing right(SDR) basket on RMB's internationalization, the authors systemically study the risk spillover networks and examine the dynamic relationship of exchange rates among the SDR currencies including the US dollar(USD), European Union euro(EUR), Japanese yen(JPY) and British pound(GBP).The empirical results demonstrate that the USD takes a dominant position and holds the biggest risk spillover to other currencies, and the RMB's inclusion to the SDR basket makes the risk spillover to get average, giving rise to the SDR currency system more stable to a certain degree. The inclusion of the RMB in the SDR not only can reduce the systematic risk of the SDR, but also has a certain impact on the international exchange rate markets. Nowadays, in front of the growing trade friction, more such researches could help to effectively deal with the currency disputes.     

Comparison of Travel Mode Choice Between Taxi and Subway Regarding Traveling Convenience

In this study, we investigate travel mode choice behavior between taxi and subway with an emphasis on the influence of traveling convenience. In the first stage, we examine the Origin-Destination(OD) points of Beijing taxi trips and compare these locations with the respective nearest subway station. Statistics reveal several interesting conclusions. First, for approximately 24.89% of all trips, no convenient subway connections exist between the OD pairs. As such, a taxi becomes the only viable choice. Second, for 80.23% of the remaining 75.11%of trips(equivalent to 60.26% of all trips), access distance from either the origin or the destination to the nearest subway station is greater than 500 meters. This phenomenon indicates that walking distance plays an important role in travel mode choice. In the second stage, we examine groups of taxi trips with similar travel distances and travel times to reveal common features. We establish a preference rule in terms of travel distance and travel time.This determines whether an individual driver will take a taxi or the subway, using a pairwise comparison-based preference regression model. Tests indicate that more than 95% of taxi trips can be correctly predicted by this preference rule. This conclusion reveals that traveling convenience dominates the travel model choice between taxi and subway. All these findings shed light on the factors that influence travel mode choice behavior.     

Forecasting the duration of short‐term deflation episodes

The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula.     

Blockage of the NLRP3 inflammasome by MCC950 improves anti-tumor immune responses in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

The NLRP3 inflammasome is a critical innate immune pathway responsible for producing active interleukin (IL)-1β, which is associated with tumor development and immunity. However, the mechanisms regulating the inflammatory microenvironment, tumorigenesis and tumor immunity are unclear. Herein, we show that the NLRP3 inflammasome was over-expressed in human HNSCC tissues and that the IL-1β concentration was increased in the peripheral blood of HNSCC patients. Additionally, elevated NLRP3 inflammasome levels were detected in tumor tissues of Tgfbr1/Pten 2cKO HNSCC mice, and elevated IL-1β levels were detected in the peripheral blood serum, spleen, draining lymph nodes and tumor tissues. Blocking NLRP3 inflammasome activation using MCC950 remarkably reduced IL-1β production in an HNSCC mouse model and reduced the numbers of myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), regulatory T cells (Tregs) and tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs). Moreover, inhibiting NLRP3 inflammasome activation increased the numbers of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells in HNSCC mice. Notably, the numbers of exhausted PD-1⁺ and Tim3⁺ T cells were significantly reduced. A human HNSCC tissue microarray showed that NLRP3 inflammasome expression was correlated with the expression of CD8 and CD4, the Treg marker Foxp3, the MDSC markers CD11b and CD33, and the TAM markers CD68 and CD163, PD-1 and Tim3. Overall, our results demonstrate that the NLRP3 inflammasome/IL-1β pathway promotes tumorigenesis in HNSCC and inactivation of this pathway delays tumor growth, accompanied by decreased immunosuppressive cell accumulation and an increased number of effector T cells. Thus, inhibition of the tumor microenvironment through the NLRP3 inflammasome/IL-1β pathway may provide a novel approach for HNSCC therapy.     

非物质文化遗产协同创新保护体系探究——以丹寨万达小镇为例

以丹寨万达小镇为切入点,分析它的特色之处,引出非物质文化遗产是其内核。阐述非物质文化遗产协同创新保护体系的构成,探索协同创新保护体系运营模式,指出非物质文化遗产协同创新保护之路任重而道远。     

Cost and Service-Level-Based Model for a Seru Production System Formation Problem with Uncertain Demand

With increasing demand diversification and short product lifecycles, industries now encounter challenges of demand uncertainty. The Japanese seru production system has received increased attention owing to its high efficiency and flexibility. In this paper, the problem of seru production system formation under uncertain demand is researched. A multi-objective optimization model for a seru production system formation problem is developed to minimize the cost and maximize the service level of the system. The purpose of this paper is to formulate a robust production system that can respond efficiently to the stochastic demand. Sample average approximation (SAA) is used to approximate the expected objective of the stochastic programming. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) is improved to solve the multi-objective optimization model. Numerical experiments are conducted to test the tradeoff between cost and service level, and how the performance of the seru production system varies with the number of product types, mean and deviation of product volume, and skill-level-based cost.     

基于滑移/非滑移异质界面的动压润滑性能优化

合理布置的滑移/非滑移异质界面可以提高流体动压润滑性能,但目前滑移区和非滑移区的组合方式大多采用单一的直线拼接法,没有针对流体润滑摩擦副的各类工况设计出相应的优化方案,为此本文建立了一组离散式二次方程来描述滑移区和非滑移区拼接轨迹,并引入计算域单元的宽长比作为优化变量,分别以液膜刚度和摩擦因数作为优化目标,通过MATLAB数值仿真求解不同宽长比条件下滑移区和非滑移区的最优拼接轨迹。结果表明,与直线拼接法相比,选取二次方程所描述的抛物线作为滑移区和非滑移区拼接轨迹的方法使流体润滑摩擦副在摩擦因数和液膜刚度等性能指标上都有所改善,而且根据不同的优化目标参数可以方便地绘制出最优拼接方案,验证了本文方法在改善动压润滑性能上的可行性和普适性。     

A Simulation Method for Analyzing and Evaluating Rail System Performance Based on Speed Profile

This paper presents and discusses a simulation method for analyzing and evaluating system performance on a rail line from the perspective of speed profile. Dynamic analysis for train motions is introduced, and a discrete time-operation graph is proposed to represent the relation between speed profile and energy consumption. Based on them, an analytical model is formulated to provide a quick insight into the system performance. The discrete-time simulation (DTS) method is then implemented to study the system in detail. Compared to the existing simulations, two innovations are included in the DTS: (1) the analytical lookup tables that can simplify the dynamic computation and, (2) the speed profile adjustment process that forecasts and avoids future conflicts based on practical constraints. The numerical results show that the DTS speed profile has advantages over existing methods. Finally, the DTS method is used to analyze and evaluate the system performance of the current timetable on Beijing Yizhuang Metro Line. The results suggest that the current timetable is not robust enough, and thus possible improvements are discussed at both scheduling and operating stages. The proposed method is verified to be effective and reliable for practical uses.